A new estimate released today projects the potential number of Depo-Provera-related meningioma cases, with figures ranging from 16,651 to 18,156 for progesterone receptor-positive cases. A broader estimate suggests a total of 27,752 to 30,261 cases within the 18-55 age group.

This projection is based on the premise that individuals who used Depo-Provera within this timeframe and later received a meningioma diagnosis may have a clearer path in establishing causation. This is in contrast to those who used the medication earlier in life and developed the condition decades later. The estimate takes a conservative approach, emphasizing cases where the link is more readily identifiable based on current scientific evidence.

However, legal success hinges on more than biological plausibility—it demands well-defined and specific causation, which will undoubtedly be challenged in court. Many claims may face hurdles due to factors such as individual medical history, gaps in documentation proving drug usage, and alternative explanations for tumor formation.

Despite this, the estimate may actually underrepresent the true scope of cases. A significant number of individuals continue to come forward, even without active marketing efforts beyond providing accessible online information. Furthermore, this projection might not fully account for delayed diagnoses or long-term users beyond the primary demographic.